Summary of Abstract Submission

Abstract Submission No. IO50-10-0029PresentationOral

MODELING STORM SURGE AND ITS IMPACT DUE TO VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM 'PHAILIN'

P L N Murty1, N. Kiran Kumar1, J. Padmanabham1, R. S. Mahendra**1, T. Srinivasa Kumar1, S S C Shenoi1

1 ESSO - INCOIS, India

ABSTRACT :

'Phalin', a very severe cyclonic storm made landfall at Odisha coast, India, on 12th October 2013. Surge heights and inland inundation extents due to 'Phailin' were modeled using ADCIRC hydrodynamic model. The model did reproduce the temporal evolution of the surge residual with respect to observations from a tide gauge at Paradip (correlation 0.8, RMSE 0.26m). However, the model marginally underestimated the magnitude with respect to observations, which can be attributed to the lack of wave set-up in the model and uncertainty in wind and pressure information. Field survey was conducted by INCOIS team soon after the cyclone landfall. Model-simulated inundation extent matched well with field surveys at Ganjam, the coastal location which was highly impacted by 'Phailin'. The impact on coastal inundation extent was also investigated through an idealized scenarios by changing the time of landfall relative to phase of tide. These types of studies are required for better understanding the sensitivity of inundation to the phase of tide in the model. Simulation with landfall at flooding tide showed greater inundation than the real scenario and vice versa. Results from idealized scenarios confirmed the significance of the accuracy needed in forecasting landfall time. Our results clearly indicate that the overall performance of the model is good and therefore its potential use as a tool to forewarn disaster management authorities.