Summary of Abstract Submission

Abstract Submission No. IO50-05-0050PresentationPoster


Ashis K. Mitra*1, I. M. Momin2, D. K. Mahapatra2, A. Gera2, P. P. Saheed2, M. Joshi2, E. N. Rajagopal2

1 NCMRWF, MoES, Sec 62, Noida, UP 201309, India
2 NCMRWF, MoES, India


Indian Ocean plays an unique role in rainfall for India and South Asian region during summer monsoon season. Air-sea interaction and related coupled process is the key to realistic monsoon simulation. Realistic model representation of monsoon rainfall variability is a scientific challenge and is of great societal consequences. Due to scale interactions, study of monsoon variability and predictability from hours to a season using a realistic model is of vital importance. NCMRWF is focussing on the forecast of monsoon rainfall using a coupled model and its initialisation. Improving the skill of models within the time-scale of first two weeks period is vital because of its seamless connection to the monsoon intra-seasonal and seasonal variability and prediction. Model development for monsoon rainfall has to be dealt in a holistic way including the scales from days to a season. NCMRWF on its effort to undertake advanced research in tropical/monsoon simulation/prediction across a range of time-scales from hours to a season has made one incremental step forward by implementing a state-of-the-art coupled model. In this study, we report the results from the monsoon simulations from the coupled model. The circulations and associated water mass of the Indian Ocean are examined by comparing with observations. The biases in ocean simulation are discussed. To remain at the forefront of monsoon prediction, a much higher resolution version of the coupled model and its initialisation component is being implemented on a more powerful super computer. The focus will be to improve simulation of coupled monsoon variability in time-scale of hours to a season with an aim to improve forecast skill in week-2 time period over Indian region.