Summary of Abstract Submission

Abstract Submission No. IO50-05-0030PresentationOral


Weidong Yu*1, Kuiping Li1, Baochao Liu1, Yang Yang 1

1 First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, China


The timely monsoon onset is crucial for society benefit, which represents the stop of the heat wave, the start of the rainy season and the time of agriculture. However, late monsoon onset sometimes occurs and even several days delay could cause huge trouble. Year 2015 is such a case when summer monsoon rainfall hit Southern tip of India four days later than its mean date and this caused the second worst heat wave there. The skill of seasonal forecast of monsoon onset and its following intensity is still low from both dynamic and statistical models. The potential inherent difficulties associated with the underlying physical processes are discussed. One conceptional model for monsoon onset is suggested, which is checked with the aid of observation, CGCM output diagnosis.