Summary of Abstract Submission

Abstract Submission No. IO50-05-0019PresentationPoster

INDIAN SUMMER MONSOON RAINFALL PREDICTION FROM ECMWF SYSTEM 3 MODEL AND ROLE OF ENSO AND IOD

Nishant Mishra*1, Shailendra Rai1

1 KBCAOS, University of Allahabad, INDIA

ABSTRACT :

It is found that the state of ENSO does not explain interannual variability of Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) completely and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) is also supposed to influence IMR. Furthermore, the influence of ENSO and IOD on IMR has changed from time to time and is the subject of debate in the scientific community. The ECMWF System 3 coupled forecast data for the period 1961-2007 is used in this study. We tried to investigate the predictability of observed tele-connection of IMR with ENSO, IOD and Indian monsoon Index (IMI) from the ECMWF model during the time domain of our study. It is observed that the model is better in predicting the observed tele-connection pattern of IMR with NINO3.4 and IOD during the time domain 1997-2207 as compared to 1961-1996. The anomaly correlation skill of model produced JJAS precipitation with respect to IMD observation was found to be 0.37 and 0.51 during the time domain 1961-1996 and 1997-2007 respectively. The IMI, a circulation index in Indian Ocean, supposed to represent the interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon reasonably well. We found that relationship between IMI and IMR from the coupled model was higher for the time period 1961-1996 as compared 1997-2007. However, the observed tele-connection of IMI and IMR is higher during the entire time domain of 1961-2007. We can conclude that the improvement in the prediction of observed tele-connection pattern of external forcing such as ENSO and IOD with IMR play more significant role for regulating Indian Monsoon as compared to circulation index.